ISLAMABAD — In a bold move, Pakistan has rejected the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) proposal to send a team of experts to investigate a $30 billion gap in the country’s import records. Instead, the government says it will sort out the issue itself through the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
The IMF raised the matter during talks for the second review of Pakistan’s $7 billion bailout program, suggesting a detailed probe to figure out why three key government institutions reported completely different import totals between July 2020 and June 2025.
Three Different Numbers, One Big Mystery
Here’s how the numbers stack up:
- Pakistan Single Window (PSW): $321 billion
- State Bank of Pakistan (SBP): $291 billion
- Pakistan Revenue Automation Limited (PRAL): $304.5 billion
That’s a massive $30 billion difference, and nobody can fully explain where it came from.
Officials believe the mismatch comes mainly from unrecorded raw-material imports under export schemes, which are not always tracked by banks or tax systems.
Government Says “No Thanks” to IMF Help
Despite the IMF’s offer to send a technical assistance team, Pakistan has politely said “no.” PBS Chief Statistician Dr. Naeem Uz-Zafar said his department is fully capable of fixing the issue internally.
“The Bureau has the technical capacity to reconcile the data. We are already working with the State Bank, Customs, and PSW to close the gaps,” he said.
Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal backed the decision, telling reporters that the IMF had been briefed and was “satisfied” with Pakistan’s explanation. He insisted there was no need for outside involvement in what he called a “technical reconciliation exercise.”
IMF Wants Transparency
The IMF isn’t fully convinced. The global lender has urged Pakistan to publicly disclose the inconsistencies and allow external experts to review how trade data is compiled.
According to IMF officials, transparency is key for global investors and credit agencies that rely on accurate trade numbers. They also want Pakistan to improve coordination between the State Bank, PBS, and Customs authorities to avoid similar issues in the future.
Why the Gap Matters
The difference between $291 billion and $321 billion may sound technical, but it could have real consequences. A gap of this size could raise doubts about Pakistan’s trade transparency, foreign exchange flows, and even tax revenues.
Economists warn that such discrepancies can hurt investor confidence and complicate IMF negotiations. “A $30 billion mismatch over five years shows weak coordination between institutions. It’s not just a math error,” said one Islamabad-based analyst.
A Clash of Priorities
While the IMF pushes for transparency, Pakistan seems more focused on maintaining control over its data systems and avoiding external scrutiny. Officials argue that the issue is a matter of coordination, not corruption.
The government also believes that allowing an IMF-led probe could invite unnecessary attention and possibly affect ongoing negotiations for future financial aid.
The PBS, along with PSW, PRAL, and SBP, will now carry out a joint internal review over the next few months. A final report will be submitted to the government, and updated figures may be released publicly later this year.
Still, it remains to be seen whether the IMF will accept Pakistan’s internal review or push again for an independent audit.
For now, Islamabad is standing firm — no outsiders, no probes, just homegrown data cleanup.
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